Justin Bons, a seasoned investor and hedge fund manager, is sure that Bitcoin (BTC) as a safe payment instrument is on borrowed time. In coming years, Bitcoin (BTC) network participants will lose economic motivation to keep it secure.
Here’s why Bitcoin (BTC) will not stay secure in long term
In order to stay secure, Bitcoin (BTC) should either double its value every four years in the next century or struggle with extremely high transactional fees, Bons claimed on Twitter today, on Jan. 21, 2023.
1/4) BTC has to double in value every four years for the next century or sustain extremely high fees
Just to maintain the current level of security
Such growth is impossible since it would exceed global GDP in 33 years based on current price
Therefore; BTC security is doomed!
— Justin Bons (@Justin_Bons) January 21, 2023
At the same time, this growth seems impossible to the analyst as the Bitcoin (BTC) capitalization would need to surpass the net GDP of all world countries to achieve this goal. But even if this uber-bullish scenario plays out, in 80 years, Bitcoin’s (BTC) «security budget» would vanish.
Also, it seems highly unlikely that a significant number of users would still use Bitcoin (BTC) to pay $100 as a median transactional fee. As covered by U.Today previously, before the activation of EIP 1559, Ethereum (ETH) gas fees for Uniswap (UNI) transactions and OpenSea listings spiked above $100 in 2020-2021.
The Ethereum (ETH) network became virtually unusable during these spikes caused by peak activity of Ponzi schemes or rapid price upsurges.
Justin Bons is sure that the Bitcoin (BTC) block size limit is to blame for the upcoming collapse that looks almost inevitable to him:
Paying hundreds of dollars for a single transaction is not realistic in a competitive market. When fees spike, users leave, all due to the unnecessary addition of the block size limit
By contrast, Bons praised Ethereum (ETH) Merge mainnet activation high due to its positive tokenomical effects for Ether (ETH) users and community.
When will Bitcoin (BTC) security fail?
Previously, he fought for the «original vision» of Bitcoin (BTC), but now he is going to alert BTC users about its «impending failure,» Bons added. As per his estimation, Bitcoin’s (BTC) security model will fail within 5-9 years.
As covered by U.Today previously, adamant Bitcoin (BTC) critic Craig Wright, known as «Fake Satoshi,» yet again slammed the orange coin last week. He stressed that it does not work as an «effective payment system» right now.
Also, he cannot find narratives for Bitcoin (BTC) outside Ponzi schemes and pyramids, Wright concluded.